Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS64 KLZK 160520
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Warm and humid through the weekend and early next week

-Small chances for showers/thunderstorms into Sunday

-More unsettled pattern next week...with some potential for areas
of heavy rainfall

-Severe threat may also develop next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this Fri
morning...with some light SRLY winds already noted. These SRLY winds
will increase into this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.
Temps will warm further from Thu as a result...even as some
increased cloud cover develops. This increased cloud cover will be
result of a weak upper wave passing over NRN sections of the state
into the afternoon hrs. This upper wave may also trigger some
isolated/widely scattered convection...with some low end POPs
mentioned again today as a result over WRN/NRN sections.

A similar situation may occur again for Sat as well...with SRLY SFC
flow continuing...and a weak upper wave passing over the AR/MO border
before the midday timeframe. Flow aloft will increase from the SW on
Sun...with SRLY/SERLY SFC flow increasing further. Most of the upper
energy looks to remain west of AR on Sun into Sun night...so have
dropped POPs to just slight chance across WRN sections with no
significant forcing mechanisms expected.

A more unsettled pattern will exist for the work week next week.
Upper level energy will attempt to move close to AR starting
Mon...but the cold front will hold off until mainly Tue and Wed.
This front will drop south into the state slowing as it drops south
and becomes parallel to the upper flow. Additional upper waves look
to pass overhead...keeping chances for convection in the forecast
nearly every day next week. While this setup tends to result in
areas of heavy rainfall with multiple rounds of convection
possible...uncertainty does exist on how far SE the front
drops...and the upper energy moves. Given the ongoing drought
conditions...a bit hesitant to get into the details regarding how
much rainfall may occur. This will be ironed out over the next few
days...and hopefully many areas can see additional beneficial
rainfall.

Will also need to at least mention some potential for seeing strong
to SVR convection with the more active pattern as well. Given the
mid/late May time-frame...deep moisture return...and stout upper
level flow...a threat for seeing SVR convection may exist.
However...details on timing of upper waves and other uncertainties
will need figured out in the coming days on any SVR threat potential
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the period. LLWS is present
in northern terminals but should erode closer to sunrise. Winds
to remain generally SSWrly with some stronger gusts mixed in.
Confidence in coverage of rainfall in northern half of area has
decreased since last issuance, have removed VCSH this cycle and
will monitor trends if it needs to be re-added in a later
issuance.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  73  87  69 /  20  20  20   0
Camden AR         91  70  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       82  70  86  67 /  30  30  30   0
Hot Springs AR    89  72  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  89  72  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     90  72  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  72  86  70 /  10  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  84  70  86  67 /  30  30  30   0
Newport AR        89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  71  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   88  71  88  68 /  20  20  20   0
Searcy AR         89  70  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      90  73  87  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78